Two roads on the roadmap. One safe, one bold. Most teams line them up side by side, build a business case for each, and pick the bigger number.
That’s the mistake.
You’re not comparing two versions of the same bet. The safe road is a high-probability move with a low ceiling. The bold road is a low-probability move with a high one. Same slide, completely different animals.
So price the risk before you price the prize. Weigh how soon the money lands, not just how much. And be honest about whether the rest of the company can actually run the new play.
The bigger prize is not the right answer. The bet you can survive being wrong about is.
This is the short version. The full story - a head of product staring at four possible futures with the budget to build one - is in issue 02 of Selling Serendipity.
